By Mihir Dasgupta
In 2020, perhaps no other state was in the news as much for its election drama as The Peach State. With ever-changing demographics, Georgia has seen a consistent increase in population for 12 years now, with white populations in many counties across Georgia expected to become the minority in the next few decades. Once a Republican stronghold, the state has slowly but surely turned more purple since 2016. Joe Biden narrowly won the U.S. presidency in 2020, winning three states with a margin of just over 10,000 votes each. Given how close the race was in 2020, understanding how Georgia could play into the 2024 presidential election is of key concern to parties on both sides of the aisle.
The first question that needs to be answered is regarding how relevant Georgia’s role as a battleground state in 2024 is nationally. For one, the race between the presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, is reasonably close. In 2020, the two were neck-and-neck in the polls, with each edging ahead of the other in turn over the last two months before Election Day.
This year, however, Trump has been consistently ahead of Biden in most national polls by a margin between 2% to 6%. However, he has also consistently underperformed against polling expectations throughout the Republican primaries. The question of whether this weaker-than-expected showing extends to general election polling is largely unanswered as of March 2024. If so, Biden has good reason to believe Georgia is still pivotal in 2024. The path to reelection for both candidates arguably lies through Georgia. Biden seems to have an edge over Trump in the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), while Trump is outperforming Biden in the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and South Carolina). Trump has not lost to Biden in a Georgia matchup poll in over a year.
Therefore, while Georgia is still certainly nationally relevant, is the state still in play for Biden this year? I would argue it is. Historically, Trump has never done well with the Black vote, which makes up a whopping third of eligible voters in Georgia. Also, the Roe v. Wade reversal in June 2022 has been a political issue for Republicans, who have underperformed consistently in most Senate and House elections since the decision. Considering over two-thirds of Georgia voters disapprove of this reversal, the Biden-Harris ticket has good reason to believe that enough campaigning could bring Georgia back into play for 2024. However, it is going to need some elbow grease.
That said, Georgia is not a monolith. As usual, national political messaging may not turn the tide in either direction. Communities in Georgia are diverse across ethnic, racial, and income lines. Aunna Dennis, executive director at Common Cause Georgia, provided an example to illustrate this diversity: in West Georgia, “factories are shifting constantly,” leaving hundreds of workers dealing with an unstable labor market, while in East Georgia issues revolving around the public service commission, climate justice, and polluting power plants tend to draw more attention. Dennis also pointed out the extent of food deserts within Metro Atlanta, while more rural areas in South Georgia additionally suffer from broadband deserts. As she put it, “Issues are relative to what’s happening locally.” This is only a taste of the complexities and diversity across Georgia, and it is going to be challenging for any campaign to work through this maze. However, local needs must be heard, understood, and addressed to earn Georgian votes.
When people feel unheard, political apathy sets in. It has the potential to create a situation where voters are simply not incentivized to make the effort of casting their vote for either party. Dennis believes that understanding these issues involves a great deal of tracking them through “relational organizing” — essentially working with people where they are through deep-dive discussions, whether that be at a local faith organization or a local diner.
Meanwhile, Nicole Robinson, political director at Fair Fight Action, also suggested that one of the best ways to address this apathy is to simply make voting easier by expanding voter access through “increased polling locations,” “adding additional days for Sunday voting,” and “working with elected officials” to ensure equitable access to voting. She also believes that one of the best ways to reach these voters is through grassroots-level organizing that “knocks on doors” and finds unique ways to use their organization’s size to engage with voters. Combating this apathy will not be easy, but is certain to be a core theme of this year’s election.
Robinson also pointed out that apathy can often stem from a lack of knowledge about what politics and government can provide. She said this is critical to encouraging voter turnout regardless of “your color, your party, or your zip code.” Fair Fight Action does this through its video series, “Civics for the Culture” which draws connections between the individual and the government at all levels. For example, one of the videos in the series points out that while the effects of the Electoral College are part of the reason people do not believe their votes count,
the Electoral College has no impact on state and local elections which play a significant role in the lives of voters.
Robinson also pointed out that apathy can often stem from a lack of knowledge about what politics and government can provide. She said this is critical to encouraging voter turnout regardless of “your color, your party, or your zip code.” Fair Fight Action does this through its video series, “Civics for the Culture” which draws connections between the individual and the government at all levels. For example, one of the videos in the series points out that while the effects of the Electoral College are part of the reason people do not believe their votes count,
the Electoral College has no impact on state and local elections which play a significant role in the lives of voters.
That said, there is still a gap that still needs
to be filled by both parties in reaching voters
and making their case to combat this apathy.
There has been good progress on this front,
with record-high turnout in the 2022 midterm
elections (52% of all eligible voters), but it
comes with a caveat. The 2022 runoff elections in Georgia were one of the most high-stakes in recent history, deciding the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Therefore, Georgia was one of the most heavily campaigned states. Any candidate looking to pick up votes in Georgia
in 2024 needs to embrace the same intensity of proactive campaigning seen in 2022 that would truly allow them to connect with the community
and create impactful policy.
Another important factor in understanding the local political landscape of Georgia is an acknowledgment of the effect S.B. 202 (the Election Integrity Act of 2021, a new slate of voting laws in Georgia) has on democratizing voter access. Key provisions of S.B. 202 include adjustments to absentee voting procedures, voter identification requirements for absentee ballots, restrictions on the use of ballot drop boxes, modifications to early voting hours, and regulations concerning the provision of food and water to voters waiting in line at polling places. The confusion around how exactly this bill will affect voting access in various populations needs to be addressed to ensure that voters are heard. While these issues have presented challenges to voting access, a presidential campaign would have to understand them to connect with communities, despite how local populations will be affected.
The median voter theorem suggests that elections are generally won by candidates who position their policies in the middle of the political spectrum. Identifying where that middle lies essentially means that both parties need to be engaged with communities across Georgia up and down the ballot to earn their vote.
As Robinson suggested, there have been instances where “parties and grassroots organizations have worked together” to better reach voters, which could be instrumental in how this election turns out. Local challenges like access to broadband and redistricting need to be watched by local party representatives to channel the status and prevalence of these issues into the campaigns and allow them to earn, not simply draw, votes from Georgia. If Georgia is of national relevance as a battleground state, it needs to be treated as such by any campaign, with empathy and understanding. We will have to wait until November 2024 to see who manages such a feat.
